Climate change

Footing the Bill Report

June 7, 2022

800 percent increase in UN appeal needs for extreme weather-related emergencies – new Oxfam research.

The amount of money needed for UN humanitarian appeals involving extreme weather events like floods or drought is now eight times higher than 20 years ago — and donors are failing to keep up, reveals a new Oxfam brief today. For every US$2 needed for UN weather-related appeals, donor countries are only providing US$1.

Average annual extreme weather-related humanitarian funding appeals for 2000-2002 were at least US$1.6 billion and rose to an average US$15.5 billion in 2019-2021, an 819 percent increase.

Rich countries responsible for most of today’s climate change impacts have met only an estimated 54 percent of these appeals since 2017, leaving a shortfall of up to US$33 billion.

The countries with the most recurring appeals against extreme weather crises — over ten each — include Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan and Zimbabwe.

The report, Footing the Bill, says that the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change is putting more pressure on an already over-stretched and underfunded humanitarian system. The costs of the destruction from these storms, droughts and floods are also increasing inequality; people in poorer communities and low-income countries are the worst hit yet they lack the systems and funding that wealthier countries have to cope with the effects. The richest one percent of people on Earth are emitting twice as much carbon pollution as the poorest half of humanity.

The UN appeals focus on the most urgent humanitarian needs, but that barely scratches the surface of the real costs in loss and damage that climate change is now wreaking on countries’ economies.

The economic cost of extreme weather events in 2021 alone was estimated to be US$329 billion globally, the third highest year on record. This is nearly double the total aid given by rich nations to the developing world that year.

The costs of loss and damage to low- and middle-income countries — for instance, the money needed to rebuild homes and hospitals or provide shelter, food and emergency cash transfers after a cyclone — could reach between US$290 billion and US$580 billion a year by 2030. This does not account for non-economic losses such as the loss of life, cultures and ways of living, and biodiversity.

UN appeals represent just a small part of the costs of climate disasters for people who are especially vulnerable and they only reach a fraction of the people who are suffering. Oxfam’s research shows that UN appeals cover only about 474 million of the estimated 3.9 billion people in low- and middle-income countries affected by extreme weather-related disasters since 2000, equivalent to one in eight people.

“Human activity has created a world 1.1˚C warmer than pre-industrial levels and we are now suffering the consequences. More alarming still, we will overshoot the 1.5˚C safety threshold on current projections. The cost of climate destruction will keep rising and our failure now to cut emissions will have catastrophic consequences for humanity. We can’t ignore the huge economic and non-economic losses and damages that underlie this picture — the loss of life, homes, schools, jobs, culture, land, Indigenous and local knowledge, and biodiversity,” said Oxfam Aotearoa Climate Campaign Lead Alex Johnston.

“This is the climate chaos we have long been warning about. Many countries that are being hardest-hit by climate change are already facing crises including conflict, food inflation, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is leading to rapidly rising inequality, mass displacement, hunger and poverty,” said Johnston.

Humanitarian disasters affect men differently than women, who face long-standing inequalities that undermine their ability to cope. Women’s rights and progress towards gender equity are threatened with every disaster. The UNDP estimates that 80 percent of people being displaced by climate change are women.

“Poor countries cannot be expected to foot the bill, and increasing aid — while helpful — is not alone the answer. Paying the cost of climate-driven loss and damages should be on the basis of responsibility — not charity. Rich countries, rich people and big corporations most responsible for causing climate change must pay for the harm they are causing,” said Johnston.

Rich and industrialised countries have contributed around 92 percent of excess historical emissions and 37 percent of current emissions. Africa’s current emissions stand at just 4 percent; The Pacific Islands account for only 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia — where more than 24.4 million people now face severe levels of hunger and food insecurity — are together responsible for just 0.1 percent of current global emissions.

Rich industrialised nations have stymied loss and damage finance negotiations for years. At COP26 in Glasgow, they rejected developing countries’ calls for a new finance facility to address loss and damage and instead agreed to a three-year ‘Glasgow Dialogue’ to discuss future arrangements. “This just added insult to injury,” Johnston said.

Ahead of 56th sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) in Germany, which includes the first ‘Glasgow Dialogue’ on loss and damage since COP26, Oxfam urges:

Rich country governments like Aotearoa New Zealand to pledge bilateral finance to address loss and damage, in addition to existing climate finance and ODA commitments.
All governments to agree to establish and fund a finance facility for loss and damage at COP27, with annual contributions based on responsibility for causing climate change and capacity to pay.
All governments to agree to make loss and damage a core element of the UNFCCC’s Gender Action Plan.

Notes

Photos and video from Burkina Faso are available for download.

Download Oxfam’s brief Footing the Bill and our methodology note.

See also Oxfam Aotearoa and Oxfam Australia’s 2021 report titled Breaking Through Red Lines which outlines the loss and damage implications across the Pacific, and also includes loss and damage Māori communities within Aotearoa are experiencing due to climate destruction. The Pacific Islands is responsible for just 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The countries with the most recurring appeals linked to extreme weather (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Sudan and Zimbabwe) account for 1.4 percent of global emissions.

According to Aon, the total economic cost of extreme weather events in 2021 is estimated at US$329 billion globally, the third-highest year on record, behind 2017 and 2005.

Recent data from Oxfam shows that the wealthiest 1 percent of humanity are responsible for twice as many emissions as the poorest 50 percent, and that by 2030, their carbon footprints are in fact set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

Rich nations provided US$178.9 billion in official development assistance (ODA) in 2021. This is equivalent to 0.33 percent of donors’ combined gross national income (GNI) and still below the UN target of 0.7 percent ODA to GNI.

According to estimations by Markandya and González-Eguino, the estimated costs of loss and damage by 2030 range from US$290 billion to US$580 billion, and according to Climate Analytics from US$400 to US$431 billion.

One person is likely dying of hunger every 48 seconds in drought-ravaged Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

Emissions Reduction Plan reaction

May 17, 2022

Oxfam Aotearoa Campaigns Lead Alex Johnston said:

“While this plan starts to trend emissions downwards, we need to be slamming on the brakes, not slowly taking our foot off the accelerator.

“We acknowledge progress has been made to get all government departments to understand the task of tackling climate change, but there’s a failure to produce policies that will meaningfully reduce pollution from industrial agriculture – responsible for half our emissions.

“We’ve got another agriculture institute for developing new techno-fixes, but no real policies that will shift production systems away from intensive, volume-based dairy. The hidden consequence of this is paying billions of dollars to other countries – countries experiencing the worst impacts of the climate destruction we caused – to pick up our slack.

“When the world is required to halve emissions by 2030 to keep within 1.5 degrees, a wealthy country like New Zealand saying we’re only going to reduce them by 18 percent in that time is a death sentence for those set to experience the worst impacts of climate change.

“Going slow and steady is a decision that treat the lives of billions of people who are forced into hunger from climate fuelled drought, storms and displacement as expendable. Farmers in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia have lost crops and entire herds of livestock to an exceptionally long and severe drought. Millions of people in East Africa are now on the brink of a hunger catastrophe.

“We know what’s needed to tackle emissions from agriculture: we need big dairy and beef to be brought into the Emissions Trading Scheme at a much stronger emissions price, and turn around the farming sector, from being Aotearoa’s biggest polluter, into a solution for tackling climate change and restoring nature. That involves a phase out of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, and investing billions in organic, regenerative agriculture.”

Oxfam reaction to the IPCC’s Working Group III report on climate change mitigation

April 5, 2022

Responding to the publication today of the IPCC’s Working Group III report on climate change mitigation, Oxfam’s Climate Policy Lead Nafkote Dabi said:

“This IPCC report pulls no punches. The bleak and brutal truth about global warming is this: barring action on a sweeping scale, humanity faces worsening hunger, disease, economic collapse, mass migration of people and unbearable heat. It’s not about taking our foot off the accelerator anymore —it’s about slamming on the brakes. A warming planet is humanity’s biggest emergency.

“No amount of adaptation can compensate for the terrible consequences of failing to hit the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. This is a survival target and it remains within our grasp, but just barely. After a dip in 2020, carbon emissions that fuel climate change have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. We need extraordinary cuts in the use of fossil fuels to meet our emissions targets, and that entails a dramatic shift towards sustainable renewable energy. The recent push to increase production of oil, gas and coal and backtrack on climate measures because of the crisis in Ukraine —and even to delay net-zero— is shortsighted folly.

Oxfam Aotearoa Campaign Lead Alex Johnston said:

“Today, the world’s leading scientists urge world leaders, again, to act now, act quickly and act on a much larger scale than planned. It is clear that New Zealand’s response to the climate crisis is completely inadequate to the scale of the challenge we are facing. Domestic action planned by the government would reduce emissions by only about 9 percent by 2030. It is simply not enough.

“The New Zealand government’s Emissions Reduction Plan must do more to cut climate pollution faster and fairer, particularly in our largest polluting sectors of agriculture and transport to protect the things we love and ensure those on the frontlines of climate change can thrive, not just survive.”

Nafkote Dabi said: “Climate change is causing extreme weather disasters now and their costs are piling up. But these costs do not hit everyone equally. People living in poverty are suffering first and worst. Farmers in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia have lost crops and entire herds of livestock to an exceptionally long and severe drought. Millions of people in East Africa are now on the brink of a hunger catastrophe. Meanwhile the richest people who have massive carbon footprints are turning up the air-conditioning on their mega yachts.

“The other clear message from this report is that every single action to cut emissions counts and every fraction of a degree matters. The world is currently heading for 2.7°C of warming under current plans. That is a death sentence for climate-vulnerable countries like Vanuatu and Bangladesh. Wealthy countries are disproportionately responsible for the climate crisis and they have the double responsibility to both cut emissions at home and to support developing countries with the costs of replanting crops and rebuilding homes after storms, and moving from dirty energy forms to cleaner, lower-carbon ones.

“This monumental climate report is distressing but it is not surprising. Scientists and the IPCC have been warning governments of this danger for decades. Our future lies in the decisions we make today. We cannot tackle climate change later. We must clamp down on emissions now or face more catastrophic climate disasters, season after season.”

Notes:

Oxfam Aotearoa is calling for a proper price on agricultural emissions under the ETS, a phase out of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, a NZ$1 billion investment in regenerative, organic farming; and a stop to relying on offshore credits to meet our targets.
Recently in Aotearoa, Lawyers for Climate Action (LCANZI) challenged the Climate Change Commission’s advice to the Government in relation to climate change policies. LCANZI claimed that the Commission’s advice is inconsistent with the science and as a result, its advice is far less ambitious than it needs to be. Read more here.
Photographs and video from East Africa are available for download. As many as 28 million people across East Africa at risk of extreme hunger.
The economies of the G7 nations could see an average loss of 8.5 percent annually by 2050 ―equivalent to $4.8 trillion― if leaders do not take more ambitious action to tackle climate change. For low-income countries, the consequences of climate change could be much greater.
Canada says it could increase oil and gas exports this year by up to 300,000 barrels per day in response to the crisis in Ukraine, while Italy could reopen shuttered coal plants. In Germany, plans for phasing out coal power are being questioned. The US administration is asking domestic oil and gas producers to increase production, and Norway plans to provide new licenses for gas and oil exploration in the Arctic. In the UK, the Government’s net-zero agenda is facing opposition.
Climate pledges for 2030, including new or updated NDCs and other 2030 commitments, reduce projected 2030 emissions by only 7.5 percent —far short of the 30 percent needed to keep the global average temperature rise to 2°C and 55 percent required for 1.5°C.
The richest one percent were responsible for 15 percent of emissions added to the atmosphere between 1990 and 2015 ―more than all the citizens of the EU and more than twice that of the poorest half of humanity (7 percent). The richest 10 percent accounted for over half (52 percent) of emissions during this time. For more information, download Oxfam’s report “Confronting Carbon Inequality”.
According to Boat International, the superyacht industry has largely shrugged off the COVID-19 pandemic to record a third year of consistent order book growth. The 2022 Global Order Book records 1,024 projects in build or on order, a rise of 24.7 per cent on last year’s 821.
As of 2015, countries in the Global North were responsible for 92 percent of excess carbon emissions and 92 percent of climate breakdown. By contrast, most countries in the Global South were within their boundary fair shares.
The carbon footprints of the richest 1 percent of people on Earth is set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement in 2030. Download “Carbon Inequality in 2030” for more information.

Climate Change Commission on trial in Aotearoa

February 28, 2022

Taking place virtually at the High Court in Wellington today, Lawyers for Climate Action (LCANZI) will challenge the advice the Climate Change Commission gave government in 2021. LCANZI’s claim is that the advice given is illegal and inconsistent with the science of keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees. The New Zealand government has been relying on this advice to set its 2030 emissions reduction target and emissions budgets. 

If LCANZI’s claim is successful, this would mean that the government decisions on the 2030 target and proposed emissions budgets are unlawful, and could force the government to dramatically increase the level of action it plans to take to reduce emissions in the forthcoming Emissions Reduction Plan.  

Oxfam Aotearoa campaign lead Alex Johnston said:

“We will only limit the worst impacts of climate change – the impact to homes, to the food we grow, and the places we love – if we take action at the scale necessary to keep global heating to within 1.5 degrees.

“Families in Westport and Buller will tell you just how bad it can be. Farmers and communities in Vanuatu, Solomon Island’s and Timor Leste can tell you just how bad it can be. And this is with just one degree of warming.

“This court case will show vast difference between what is needed to keep global heating to 1.5 degrees according to the IPCC and the level of action being planned by the New Zealand government. It’s clear when you look at the science, not enough is being done. 2030 is looking grim.

The IPCC, the world’s authoritative scientific body on climate science, released its report on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability on the same day that this court case starts. This latest report will show the extent to which warming has increased climatic hazards, and how limits to adaptation are already being reached. Johnston says that hard facts presented in the report will make the lack of action and commitment from high-emitters more evident, and the calls for limiting warming as much as possible even stronger. 

“The government’s May Budget and finalising of the Emissions Reduction Plan must do more to cut climate pollution fairer and faster, particularly in our largest polluting sectors of agriculture and transport to protect the things we love and ensure those on the frontlines of climate change can thrive, not just survive,” said Johnston.

Other organisations have joined Oxfam including 350 Aotearoa, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Greenpeace Aotearoa, Pacific Climate Warriors, Parents for Climate Aotearoa, Students for Climate Solutions, and Wise Response Society.

350 Aotearoa Executive Director Alva Feldmeier said:

“Power to change our pathway to limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees is with the people! That is what this court case is proving – concerned and engaged lawyers are uniting and making the case that the Climate Change Commissions advice and the New Zealand government’s emissions budget are not in line with keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees. This trial is one of many examples that people are fighting back and holding the line for real climate solutions. We are no longer prepared to accept accounting tricks and neo-colonial approaches to reducing emissions carbon offsets.”

Coal Action Network Cindy Baxter said:

“This government has fudged its climate target: the 50% cut, if you remove the creative accounting, actually translates as a 22% by 2030 cut. This has been noted by international assessments, and is a shameful performance by our government. NZ is also relying on international carbon offsets to meet two thirds of our target, more than any other country on the planet. This is not what climate action should look like.”

Greenpeace Senior Agriculture Campaigner Christine Rose said:

“Intensive dairying is to New Zealand what coal is to Australia and tar sands are to Canada. If this Government is serious about tackling the climate crisis, it must do what we already know will cut climate pollution from intensive dairying: phase out synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, substantially reduce stocking rates, and support farmers to shift to more plant-based regenerative organic farming”

Students for Climate Solutions Co-Founder Ri Comer said:

“This case is exactly what is needed right now. The outcome could actually push Aotearoa to walk the talk that it’s been spewing for the past decade. Students like myself and all those who I work with might finally have a starting point for our legal careers, a precedent for climate action. This is the case that makes science policy. This is what will make Aotearoa keep its promise to our future generations and our Pacific neighbours.”

Oxfam’s verdict on the COP26 outcome

November 15, 2021

Gabriela Bucher, Oxfam International Executive Director said:

“Clearly some world leaders think they aren’t living on the same planet as the rest of us. It seems no amount of fires, rising sea levels or droughts will bring them to their senses to stop increasing emissions at the expense of humanity.

“Punishing, extreme weather is already wrecking the lives of the most vulnerable. People are barely clinging on, having little resources to cope with the constant threat of losing all that they own. The world’s poorest have done the least to cause the climate emergency, yet are the ones left struggling to survive while also footing the bill.

“The request to strengthen 2030 reduction targets by next year is an important step. The work starts now. Big emitters, especially rich countries, must heed the call and align their targets to give us the best possible chance of keeping 1.5 degrees within reach. Despite years of talks, emissions continue to rise, and we are dangerously close to losing this race against time.

“Developing countries, representing over 6 billion people, put forward a loss and damage finance facility to build back in the aftermath of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Not only did rich countries block this, all they would agree to is limited funding for technical assistance and a ‘dialogue’. This derisory outcome is tone deaf to the suffering of millions of people both now and in the future.

“For the first time, a goal for adaptation finance was agreed. The commitment to double is below what developing countries asked for and need, but if realised it will increase support to developing countries by billions.

“It’s painful that diplomatic efforts have once more failed to meet the scale of this crisis. But we should draw strength from the growing movement of people around the world challenging and holding our governments to account for everything we hold dear. A better world is possible. With creativity, with bravery, we can and must hold onto that belief.”

Oxfam Aotearoa: Fossil of the Day award “embarrassing”

November 12, 2021

Oxfam Aotearoa has criticised the New Zealand government for winning the runner up for the “Fossil of the Day” award that Minister James Shaw received at COP26 overnight. The award, presented by the Climate Action Network (CAN), is given to the nation who has hindered COP26 negotiations the most. Oxfam Aotearoa Campaign Lead Alex Johnston said:

“It is embarrassing that our government is receiving such an ‘award’ on a global stage. This is not a good representation of Kiwis; this is not our kaupapa.”

CAN pointed out that the New Zealand government put out a revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) the night before COP, which Oxfam Aotearoa and other organisations said was inconsistent with the Paris Agreement due to its unambitious 2030 target. Oxfam previously reprimanded the updated NDC saying that it relies heavily on paying other countries to do the work for us. As CAN said in their release put out today:

“[Minister Shaw] said that just because a refreshing of the NDC has been asked of countries ‘it doesn’t mean we have to’. This comes from a country that gives off the ‘greener than thou’ vibe at the drop of a hobbits hat. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised when it was brought to our attention that he’s also the guy who put out a revised NDC the night before COP. That one wasn’t worth the wait, unfortunately. Civil society commentators widely regarded it as a Grade A hatchet job, inconsistent with Paris temperature goals, wholly unambitious on 2030 target and relying heavily on carbon markets.”

Johnston says that the New Zealand government can’t tell other countries to close the ambition gap for 1.5 degrees if we are not willing to do that ourselves:

“The government’s delay to the Emissions Reduction Plan means we are falling further and further behind. We also can’t call for transparency when our NDC hides the fact that domestic emissions will only be cut by around 7-9% below 2005 levels by 2030 on a net-net basis.

“For Minister Shaw to undermine the encouragement to return with greater NDCs in 2022 before the final text has been agreed is extremely disappointing. It’s a reflection of the laggard pace of our domestic action. Each day we delay bolder action means more people go hungry, lose their homes and die.

“Minister Shaw needs to come back from Glasgow with the clear message: Aotearoa New Zealand must scale up our domestic response and increase ambition each year until we are doing our fair share to keep global heating to 1.5 degrees.”