Climate Breakdown

Rich countries’ climate related aid to West Africa is insufficient and dangerously worsening debt levels

September 28, 2022

Rich countries and multilateral donors have so far mobilised only 7 percent of the estimated US$198.88 billion that West African countries need by 2030 to cope with the climate crisis and pursue their own green development.

According to a new Oxfam study today, Climate Finance in West Africa, 62 percent of US$11.7 billion declared by donors between 2013 and 2019 have been mostly in the form of loans, which will have to be repaid, many with interest, aggravating the debt crisis in most West African countries.

Climate finance is a highly-contentious issue that again threatens the success of the crucial UNFCCC climate talks in Egypt this November. Oxfam and a hundred African civil society organizations are concerned that African countries will come to the summit with little confidence that donors will honour their repeated promises to mobilise 100 billion a year for climate action in developing countries (a target that has been missed by US$16.7 billion in 2020).

These organisations are calling on rich countries – historically responsible for climate change – to assume their fair share to help the region face the escalating climate crises that has hit the African continent.

The report warns that rich countries are increasingly using loans to help West African countries cope with climate change. Between 2013 and 2019 loans have increased by 610 percent from US$243 million to US$1.72 billion. By comparison, grants have only increased by 79 percent. Among the donors that have made the most use of loans as a proportion of their total climate financing are the World Bank (94 percent), France (94 percent), Japan (84 percent), the African Development Bank (AfDB) (83 percent) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) (79 percent).

“At a time when West Africa is reeling from multiple crises including climate, hunger, and security, these financial flows are grossly inadequate and not what was promised. Many of these are now loans that actually reduce countries’ capacity to cope. Most countries are falling into a spiral of debt and poverty, which runs counter to the spirit of climate justice. The consequences are disastrous for millions of people who are paying the price for the impacts of climate change yet not responsible for it,” said Assalama Dawalack Sidi, Oxfam’s Regional Director for West and Central Africa.

The consequences on debt and the capacity of countries to provide basic services to populations facing multiple crises are very real. For example:
Although Niger (7th most vulnerable country in the world to climate change), Mali (13th most vulnerable), and Burkina Faso (24th most vulnerable) all face a risk of debt distress, they have received a sizable share of climate finance in the form of loans and debt: 51 percent, 43 percent, and 41 percent, respectively. These countries are already being pushed into a new wave of austerity measures by the IMF and are planning combined budget cuts of US$7.2 billion by 2026 which will further limit their ability to invest in quality public services and protection for their citizens.
Ghana currently receives 40 percent of its climate finance in the form of loans and debt, despite already being at high risk of debt distress. In 2019, Ghana was spending 55 times more on debt servicing than on agriculture. It is planning a US$23.3 billion budget cut by 2026.

Oxfam believes that funding in West Africa should focus on adaptation measures, rather than mitigation given the region is a very low contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is an 82 percent gap between the adaptation funding reported in 2019 and the needs expressed by West African countries.

Chad, the world’s most vulnerable and least prepared country for climate change, has the largest funding gap for adaptation with 95 percent of its financial needs not covered (US$1.49 billion of US$1.57 billion per year) by 2030. These findings are all the more alarming given that hunger is increasing at an unprecedented rate in the region, in part driven by droughts that are becoming more frequent and severe as rainfall becomes more erratic and unpredictable. There has been a 154 percent increase in the number of people now food insecure between March-May 2022 compared to the five-year average between 2017-2021.

“We demand that all donors urgently increase their climate financing and honour their promises. These funds must be disbursed as grants not loans and must respond to the priorities and adaptation needs of recipient countries and their communities,” said Sidi.

The report’s recommendations support the recent joint statement by two dozen African leaders meeting earlier this month at a forum in Cairo, where they urged the richest countries to uphold their aid pledges so the continent can tackle the effects of climate change for which it shares little blame.

The report is being published ahead of citizen caravans organised by about 100 African civil society organisations, including Oxfam, that will travel across 23 countries on the continent to Egypt. The caravans will mobilise communities and policy makers along the way to highlight the harm that climate change is causing to Africa and demand more justice in climate finance.

“As Africa heats up, African communities’ temperature is rising too. Today, people are uniting to demand more climate justice. The international community, and rich donors in particular, must urgently hear their cries,” said Sidi.

Notes to the editors

Download the report Climate Finance in West Africa: Assessing the State of Climate Finance in One of the World’s Regions Worst Hit by the Climate Crisis. The eight West African countries analysed are Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ghana and Nigeria.
The levels of climate finance reported by global donors in 2019 (US$2.5 billion) represent only 12.7 percent of the average annual financial needs for external climate finance expressed by West African countries in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) (covering the period 2021-2030). However, when considering Climate-specific net assistance (CSNA), current public funding that can be considered relevant for climate action would fall to 7.1 percent of average annual needs between 2021 and 2030, representing an alarming climate finance gap of 92.9 percent. The CSNA is a method of calculating climate finance developed by Oxfam, designed to be more equitable than the tools currently used by donors. The CSNA estimate includes 100 percent grants and grant equivalent of loans, guarantees and other debt instruments.
Oxfam’s estimate of net climate-specific aid is based on climate-related development finance as documented by the OECD.
See the Aggregate trends of climate finance provided and mobilized by developed countries in 2013-2020 against the 100 billion annual target, OECD, 2022.
Follow the caravans for the climate in Africa that will crisscross 23 African countries (Senegal, Benin, Niger, Ghana, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, DRC, Gambia, Guinea, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, South Africa, South Sudan, Togo, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Somalia) and will converge in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, at the time of the world climate conference (COP 27) from November 7 to 18, 2022. These caravans are a catalyst for the demands of African populations -especially youth and women- on climate finance (loss and damage, adaptation, and mitigation). They are organized by civil society organisations such as Young Volunteers for the Environment (YVE), CIDSE – International family of Catholic social justice organizations and a hundred others, with the support of Oxfam.
According to Government Spending Watch, in Ghana in 2019, total public debt service (external and domestic) reached 75 percent of government revenue, with domestic debt accounting for two-thirds.
The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index assesses a country’s vulnerability to climate disruption and its ability to mobilise investment. Chad is ranked 182nd out of 182 countries.
While some loans are concessional, Oxfam is even more concerned by the high prevalence of non-concessional finance among some donors, especially the AfDB (US$454m; 43 percent of its total), United States (US$308m; 39 percent of total), the GCF (US$229m; 73 percent of total), France (US$167m; 13 percent of total), and the EIB (US$137m; 68 percent of total).
The newly released report by World Bank Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the G5 Sahel region estimates that up to 13.5 million people across the Sahel could fall into poverty due to climate change-related shocks by 2050 if urgent climate adaptation measures are not taken.
14 out of 16 West African countries plan to reduce their national budgets by a total of US$69.8 billion between 2022 and 2026 due to pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) through its COVID-19 loans., based on the World Economic Outlook Database of the IMF and Oxfam’s analysis Adding Fuel to Fire: how IMF’s demands for austerity will drive up inequality worldwide.
According to calculations based on World Bank databases, an individual living in West Africa emits only 0.43 tons of CO2 per year. In comparison, a U.S. citizen emits 15.2 tons, with the global average being 4.5 tons.
Oxfam’s report HUNGER IN A HEATING WORLD: How the climate crisis is fuelling hunger in an already hungry world shows that climate change is deepening hunger in 10 of the world’s worst climate hotspots, including Burkina Faso and Niger. For food security projections, see the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) estimates.
African nations meeting in Cairo from 7 to 9 September call for climate change funding ahead of COP27.

Extreme hunger has more than doubled in 10 of the world’s worst climate hotspots over past six years

September 28, 2022

Less than 18 days of fossil fuel companies’ profits would cover the entire UN humanitarian appeal for 2022

Ten of the world’s worst climate hotspots – those with the highest number of UN appeals driven by extreme weather events – have suffered a 123 percent rise in acute hunger over just the past six years, according to an Oxfam report published today.

Gabriela Bucher, Oxfam International Executive Director, said: “Climate change is no longer a ticking bomb, it is exploding before our eyes. It is making extreme weather such as droughts, cyclones, and floods – which have increased five-fold over the past 50 years – more frequent and more deadly.”

The brief – Hunger in a heating world– found that those 10 climate hotspots – Somalia, Haiti, Djibouti, Kenya, Niger, Afghanistan, Guatemala, Madagascar, Burkina Faso, and Zimbabwe – have repeatedly been battered by extreme weather over the last two decades. Today, 48 million people across those countries suffer acute hunger (up from 21 million in 2016), and 18 million people of them are on the brink of starvation.

“For millions of people already pummelled down by ongoing conflict, widening inequalities, and economic crises, repeated climate shocks are becoming a backbreaker. The onslaught of climate disasters is now outpacing poor people’s ability to cope, pushing them deeper into severe hunger,” said Bucher.

For example:

Somalia is facing its worst drought on record, and famine is expected to unfold in two of its districts: Baidoa and Burhakaba. One million people have been forced to flee their homes due to the drought. The country ranks 172^nd out of 182 countries in terms of its readiness to cope with climate change.
In Kenya, the current drought has killed nearly 2.5 million livestock and left 2.4 million people hungry, including hundreds of thousands of children severely malnourished.
In Niger, 6 million people are facing acute hunger today (up 767 percent from 2016). Cereal production has crashed by nearly 40 percent, as frequent climatic shocks on top of ongoing conflict have made harvesting increasingly difficult. Production of staple foods such as millet and sorghum could plummet even further by 25 percent if global warming surpasses 2°C.
Burkina Faso has seen a staggering 1350 percent rise in hunger since 2016, with more than 3.4 million people in extreme hunger as of June 2022 due to armed conflict and worsening desertification of crop and pastoral lands. Global warming above 2°C would likely decrease cereal yields like millet and sorghum by 15–25 percent.
In Guatemala, a severe drought has contributed to the loss of close to 80 percent of the maize harvest and devastated coffee plantations.

“We spent almost eight days with hardly any food,” says Mariana López, a mother living in Naranjo in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor. Persistent drought forced her to sell her land.

Climate-fuelled hunger is a stark demonstration of global inequality. Countries that are least responsible for the climate crisis are suffering most from its impact and are also the least resourced to cope with it. Collectively responsible for just 0.13 per cent of global carbon emissions, the 10 climate hotspots sit in the bottom third of countries least ready for climate change.

In contrast, polluting industrialized nations such as those of the G20 – which control 80 percent of the world’s economy – are together responsible for over three-quarters of the world’s carbon emissions.

Leaders of these nations continue to support mega-rich polluting companies that are often big supporters of their political campaigns. Fossil fuel companies’ daily profits have averaged US$2.8 billion over the last 50 years. Less than 18 days of those profits would fund the entire UN humanitarian appeal for 2022 of US$49 billion.

Important policy changes are equally needed to address the double crisis of climate and hunger. Unless massive and immediate action is taken, hunger will continue to spiral.

“Ahead of UN General Assembly meetings this week, and COP 27 in November, leaders especially of rich polluting countries must live up to their promises to cut emissions. They must pay for adaptation measures and loss-and-damage in low-income countries, as well as immediately inject lifesaving funds to meet the UN appeal to respond to the most impacted countries.

“We cannot fix the climate crisis without fixing the systemic inequalities in our food and energy systems. Increasing taxation on super polluters could easily cover the cost. Just 1% of the fossil fuel companies’ average annual profit would generate US$10 billion, enough to cover most of the shortfall in funding the UN humanitarian food security appeal,” Bucher said.

Cancelling debt can also help governments free up resources to invest in climate mitigation.

“Rich and most polluting nations have a moral responsibility to compensate low-income countries most impacted by the climate crisis. This is an ethical obligation, not charity,” said Bucher.

Notes

Download Oxfam report Hunger in a Heating World.

The FSIN began producing the Global Reports on Food Crises in 2017. Sum of the population in IPC3+ food insecurity in the ten countries in 2016 (See GRFC 2017, p. 21) was 21.3 million and in 2021 (See GRFC 2022, pp. 30 – 33) was 47.5. The percent rise is therefore 123 percent.
The calculations of those facing starvation in the 10 countries is based on the total number of people at IPC 4 level of food insecurity and above in 2021, according to the GRFC 2022, see Understanding IPC classification
The 10 worst climate hotspots were calculated looking at countries with the highest number of extreme weather-related UN appeals since 2000, where climate was classified as a “major contributor” to these appeals. Source: Oxfam’s “Footing the Bill” report May 2022.
The 10 countries had the highest number of appeals linked to extreme weather, where climate was a major contributor to the appeal, according to the methodology outlined in the Oxfam (2022) Technical Note UN Humanitarian Appeals linked to Extreme Weather, 2000-2021.
The figure on fivefold increase in climate disasters is according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019) (WMO-No. 1267), Geneva.
The sum of cumulative carbon emissions of the 10 climate hotspots for 2020 is 0.002 trillion tons of carbon – that is 0.13 percent of the world emissions (1.69 trillion tons of carbon) in same year. Source Our World in Data.
The sum of cumulative carbon emissions of the G20 countries for 2020 is 1.299570755 trillion tons of carbon, which is 76.60 percent of global carbon emissions (1.696524177 trillion tons). Source Our World in Data.
The rank of 10 climate hotspots is 34 percent according to calculations of percentiles of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores of the 10 climate hotspots. ND-GAIN scores for 2020 retrieved from the ND-GAIN website.
For the fossil fuel industry’s daily average of US$2.8 billion in profits over the last 50 years, which is also an annual average of US$1.022 trillion, we used this 2022 article from the Guardian: Revealed: oil sector’s ‘staggering’ US$3bn-a-day profits for last 50 years. Based on the daily average, we calculated that less than 18 days of company profits would cover the full UN global humanitarian appeal for 2022 of US$48.82 billion. We used the annual average of US$1 trillion to calculate the returns from an extra 1% tax on fossil fuel profits (US$10 billion). The Guardian (2022). Revealed: oil sector’s ‘staggering’ US$3bn-a-day profits for last 50 years.
UN humanitarian appeal for 2022 is found at https://fts.unocha.org/appeals/overview/2022, last visited 30 August 2022. The food security portion of the appeal is US$15.9 billion, of which US$10.4 billion is unfunded as of 8 September 2022.

Footing the Bill Report

June 7, 2022

800 percent increase in UN appeal needs for extreme weather-related emergencies – new Oxfam research.

The amount of money needed for UN humanitarian appeals involving extreme weather events like floods or drought is now eight times higher than 20 years ago — and donors are failing to keep up, reveals a new Oxfam brief today. For every US$2 needed for UN weather-related appeals, donor countries are only providing US$1.

Average annual extreme weather-related humanitarian funding appeals for 2000-2002 were at least US$1.6 billion and rose to an average US$15.5 billion in 2019-2021, an 819 percent increase.

Rich countries responsible for most of today’s climate change impacts have met only an estimated 54 percent of these appeals since 2017, leaving a shortfall of up to US$33 billion.

The countries with the most recurring appeals against extreme weather crises — over ten each — include Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan and Zimbabwe.

The report, Footing the Bill, says that the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change is putting more pressure on an already over-stretched and underfunded humanitarian system. The costs of the destruction from these storms, droughts and floods are also increasing inequality; people in poorer communities and low-income countries are the worst hit yet they lack the systems and funding that wealthier countries have to cope with the effects. The richest one percent of people on Earth are emitting twice as much carbon pollution as the poorest half of humanity.

The UN appeals focus on the most urgent humanitarian needs, but that barely scratches the surface of the real costs in loss and damage that climate change is now wreaking on countries’ economies.

The economic cost of extreme weather events in 2021 alone was estimated to be US$329 billion globally, the third highest year on record. This is nearly double the total aid given by rich nations to the developing world that year.

The costs of loss and damage to low- and middle-income countries — for instance, the money needed to rebuild homes and hospitals or provide shelter, food and emergency cash transfers after a cyclone — could reach between US$290 billion and US$580 billion a year by 2030. This does not account for non-economic losses such as the loss of life, cultures and ways of living, and biodiversity.

UN appeals represent just a small part of the costs of climate disasters for people who are especially vulnerable and they only reach a fraction of the people who are suffering. Oxfam’s research shows that UN appeals cover only about 474 million of the estimated 3.9 billion people in low- and middle-income countries affected by extreme weather-related disasters since 2000, equivalent to one in eight people.

“Human activity has created a world 1.1˚C warmer than pre-industrial levels and we are now suffering the consequences. More alarming still, we will overshoot the 1.5˚C safety threshold on current projections. The cost of climate destruction will keep rising and our failure now to cut emissions will have catastrophic consequences for humanity. We can’t ignore the huge economic and non-economic losses and damages that underlie this picture — the loss of life, homes, schools, jobs, culture, land, Indigenous and local knowledge, and biodiversity,” said Oxfam Aotearoa Climate Campaign Lead Alex Johnston.

“This is the climate chaos we have long been warning about. Many countries that are being hardest-hit by climate change are already facing crises including conflict, food inflation, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is leading to rapidly rising inequality, mass displacement, hunger and poverty,” said Johnston.

Humanitarian disasters affect men differently than women, who face long-standing inequalities that undermine their ability to cope. Women’s rights and progress towards gender equity are threatened with every disaster. The UNDP estimates that 80 percent of people being displaced by climate change are women.

“Poor countries cannot be expected to foot the bill, and increasing aid — while helpful — is not alone the answer. Paying the cost of climate-driven loss and damages should be on the basis of responsibility — not charity. Rich countries, rich people and big corporations most responsible for causing climate change must pay for the harm they are causing,” said Johnston.

Rich and industrialised countries have contributed around 92 percent of excess historical emissions and 37 percent of current emissions. Africa’s current emissions stand at just 4 percent; The Pacific Islands account for only 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia — where more than 24.4 million people now face severe levels of hunger and food insecurity — are together responsible for just 0.1 percent of current global emissions.

Rich industrialised nations have stymied loss and damage finance negotiations for years. At COP26 in Glasgow, they rejected developing countries’ calls for a new finance facility to address loss and damage and instead agreed to a three-year ‘Glasgow Dialogue’ to discuss future arrangements. “This just added insult to injury,” Johnston said.

Ahead of 56th sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) in Germany, which includes the first ‘Glasgow Dialogue’ on loss and damage since COP26, Oxfam urges:

Rich country governments like Aotearoa New Zealand to pledge bilateral finance to address loss and damage, in addition to existing climate finance and ODA commitments.
All governments to agree to establish and fund a finance facility for loss and damage at COP27, with annual contributions based on responsibility for causing climate change and capacity to pay.
All governments to agree to make loss and damage a core element of the UNFCCC’s Gender Action Plan.

Notes

Photos and video from Burkina Faso are available for download.

Download Oxfam’s brief Footing the Bill and our methodology note.

See also Oxfam Aotearoa and Oxfam Australia’s 2021 report titled Breaking Through Red Lines which outlines the loss and damage implications across the Pacific, and also includes loss and damage Māori communities within Aotearoa are experiencing due to climate destruction. The Pacific Islands is responsible for just 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The countries with the most recurring appeals linked to extreme weather (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Sudan and Zimbabwe) account for 1.4 percent of global emissions.

According to Aon, the total economic cost of extreme weather events in 2021 is estimated at US$329 billion globally, the third-highest year on record, behind 2017 and 2005.

Recent data from Oxfam shows that the wealthiest 1 percent of humanity are responsible for twice as many emissions as the poorest 50 percent, and that by 2030, their carbon footprints are in fact set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

Rich nations provided US$178.9 billion in official development assistance (ODA) in 2021. This is equivalent to 0.33 percent of donors’ combined gross national income (GNI) and still below the UN target of 0.7 percent ODA to GNI.

According to estimations by Markandya and González-Eguino, the estimated costs of loss and damage by 2030 range from US$290 billion to US$580 billion, and according to Climate Analytics from US$400 to US$431 billion.

One person is likely dying of hunger every 48 seconds in drought-ravaged Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

Scotland to significantly increase its Climate Justice Fund

November 11, 2021

Welcoming the news that Scotland will significantly increase its Climate Justice Fund, Jamie Livingstone, Head of Oxfam Scotland, said:

“This announcement from the First Minister has hugely raised the stakes as the COP26 talks enter their final few hours: sending a powerful message to the leaders of other rich nations that it’s simply unconscionable to leave poor countries picking up the tab for a climate crisis they did least to cause.

“Other governments must now step up and follow Scotland’s lead by making substantial new financial commitments to developing countries, where people are already losing their lives, homes and livelihoods to climate change.”

Notes to Editor

Read the full announcement by the Scottish Government here: https://www.gov.scot/news/scotland-to-boost-climate-funding/
The Scottish Government had previously announced it would boost its Climate Justice Fund to £24 million over the life of the current Parliament. It will now increase the Fund by a further £12 million.
Last week, Scotland became the first rich nation to create a dedicated fund for countries experiencing the irreversible impacts of climate change. This pioneering ‘loss and damage’ fund, set within the wider Climate Justice Fund, was originally set at £1m. Today’s announcement sees loss and damage funding doubled to £2 million.

Oxfam Aotearoa: NDC announcement a betrayal to Pacific Island countries

October 31, 2021

The New Zealand government’s NDC announcement is a betrayal to Pacific Island countries and those on the frontlines of climate change says Oxfam Aotearoa Executive Director Rachael Le Mesurier. The Government’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target sets the bar for New Zealand’s contribution to keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees under the Paris Agreement. However, Le Mesurier says that the target is not good enough:

“Let’s be real here, this is not our fair share. The government has changed the way they count our emissions reductions to make them look like they are doing more than they are. This is a government that has said time and again that climate change is our nuclear-free moment. Instead of leading the fight against climate breakdown, they are hiding their inaction by changing the goal posts.

“Our previous target was to reduce emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 on an emissions budget basis. The Climate Change Commission (CCC) recommended that to be consistent with 1.5 degrees, New Zealand’s new target needed to be ‘much more than 36 per cent’ measured on an emissions budget basis, yet it is only 41 per cent,” Le Mesurier said.

Rather than showing the ambition we need, what the government have done today is change the way they measure their emissions from an emissions budget basis to a point year basis. This means they can make it look like they have increased the target by more than they have.

Last year, an Oxfam report found that to meet its fair share, New Zealand’s updated target needed to be between 80–133 per cent emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2030. Le Mesurier says that the government has had all the science, advice and the tools to get this right, but this time has failed Aotearoa, failed our Pacific whanau and failed as a global citizen:

“We’ve shown that we can play our part in global efforts with a recent four-fold increase in climate finance for countries most vulnerable to climate change. But now we need to get our own house in order. Each Minister in Cabinet needs to take responsibility for that fact that our current plans for domestic action are completely inadequate. New Zealand is not taking the action necessary for the country to do its bit to protect our planet and our people from significant harm.”

Earlier this year the harrowing sixth IPCC report revealed human influence has warmed the planet almost beyond repair, issuing what the UN Secretary General called a “red alert” for humanity that world leaders must urgently act on.

“The New Zealand government has shown us today that they are not committed to limiting the worst effects of climate change for people on the frontlines, nor to keeping a 1.5 degrees future in reach. For that to change, some bold action needs to happen to tackle our industries with the biggest footprint domestically, including the agriculture sector.”

/ENDS

Notes:

New Zealand’s NDC target of 50 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 on a point year basis equates to 41 per cent on an emissions budget basis. This is a mere 5 per cent beyond the Climate Commission’s absolute bottom line.
The Government’s creative accounting is compounded by the fact that New Zealand continues to measure its net reductions against an inflated baseline by using gross emissions in 2005. On a net-net basis, this target is more like 27-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Oxfam Aotearoa is calling the new NDC target a “scandal” as the vast majority of it is being met by offshore carbon credits – no country in the world is planning to rely on these to the extent that New Zealand is to meet their NDC.
Ardern claims that this new NDC target is New Zealand’s fair share; however, it is not consistent with keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees under the Paris Agreement, let alone our fair share of effort

Case of the Century decision Climate: the next five-year term(s) under judicial supervision

October 15, 2021

The following is a joint release from Fondation Nicolas Hulot, Greenpeace France, Notre Affaire à Tous, and Oxfam France:

The administrative court of Paris has ruled in favour of the Case of the Century: successive governments will now be obliged to prove themselves and comply strictly with France’s climate commitments. The French State is also ordered to repair the damage to the environment caused by its inaction, by December 31, 2022. This ground-breaking judgement is binding on the current government, but also on the future tenant of the Elysée. This decision marks the start of a new era for France’s climate policies: never again will any President get away with climate inaction without placing the State outside of the law.

Climate justice has forced its way onto the political agenda

For the Case of the Century organisations: “From now on, any President who does not respect France’s climate commitments condemns it twice: first by exposing its population to the increasingly devastating and costly impacts of climate change, and secondly by exposing it to further sentencing by the courts.”

The next five-year presidential term is the last chance, and the forthcoming elections will be decisive. The organisations Notre Affaire à Tous, la Fondation Nicolas Hulot, Greenpeace France and Oxfam France therefore call on all candidates to demonstrate, with figures to back them up, how they intend to extricate the State from illegality and comply with climate objectives. The organisation will evaluate these roadmaps before the presidential election.

To comply with its Climate commitments, the French State should, for instance:

Reach 700 000 building renovations per year;
Increase the Railway traffic by 20 to 25% compared to 2018;
Multiply by 4 the available surface in organic agriculture.

14 months to catch up on the climate delay which has been accumulating for 3 years Between 2015 and 2018, France emitted 15 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in excess of its legislative commitments. An offence which placed the State in a position of unlawfulness and which the country’s leaders are now obliged to put right before the end of next year. 15 million tonnes of greenhouse gases will therefore have to be subtracted from France’s “carbon budget” for 2022. This decision therefore forces the State to double up on the reduction of emissions planned between 2021 and 2022.

For the Case of the Century organisations: “As of today, any divergence from the greenhouse gas reduction plan may be sanctioned by the courts in the case of any further delay. The State now has an obligation of result for the climate. We have the judges who took on board the climate issue to thank for this necessary break with climate policy as it stands today, as well as the unprecedented mobilisation of the 2.3 million people who supported the Case of the Century.”

It is in this context that the Case of the Century staged a demonstration this morning at the Trocadero in Paris, with two messages in giant lettering: “Climate: justice is on our side!” and “Presidential candidates: no climate, no presidential term (Candidat.es: Pas de Climat, pas de mandat)”.