Climate Crisis

Pacific leaders’ endorsement for ICJ advisory opinion bid must spur global groundswell

July 19, 2022

The support from Pacific leaders for an advisory opinion on climate change from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is welcomed and must begin a global groundswell of support ahead of the UN General Assembly in September, The Civil Society Alliance Supporting an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Climate Change (CSO ICJAO Alliance) said.

Led by the Vanuatu Government, and supported by a global alliance of civil society groups representing more than 1,500 civil society organisations in 130 countries, the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion is designed to provide an international legal framework for those experiencing the worst of the climate crisis to affect broad, accelerated change.

The campaign is in response to the human rights crisis caused by climate change, with hundreds of millions of people in vulnerable countries having their livelihoods, housing, food, water, sanitation, healthcare and the environment severely impacted.

The decision to support the campaign comes following dedicated efforts from Pacific youth and civil society, who recently held a Pacific Solidarity Festival calling on Pacific leaders and family across Australia and New Zealand to back the cause.

Vishal Prasad, Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change campaigner, said the endorsement from PIF leaders is a major step on the campaign’s voyage, which would help create a global groundswell.

“Pacific leaders have grasped the opportunity to help change the course of climate justice for the Pacific and around the world.

“The Advisory Opinion Campaign is well on the way to becoming a reality. We invite people from around the world to join us on this journey, because while this initiative started in the Pacific it is truly a global campaign. All countries in the United Nations will have the opportunity to vote for climate justice this year, but now is the crucial time for them to come out and show their support.

“This is a major step on our shared journey to link the impacts of climate change with our fundamental human rights, and welcome recognition from Pacific leaders of those rights. Pacific livelihoods, health, culture and the environment are at serious risk, and we are hopeful about having recourse to change the course through an advisory opinion.

“Supporting the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion costs nothing, but means everything to nations hit hardest by the climate crisis. This is an idea whose time has come.”

Steph Hodgins-May, Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner, said support for the ICJ advisory campaign is welcomed, but must be part of a broader effort from Australia to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

“Australia’s endorsement of the campaign for an advisory opinion on climate change from the ICJ is welcome, and demonstrates Australia is serious about both tackling the climate crisis, and strengthening its relationship with the Pacific.

“However, this endorsement cannot be viewed in isolation. To be a true Pacific family member, Australia must not only champion the journey towards climate justice through the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion, but also pursue more ambitious climate action by committing to no new coal and gas projects.”

Rose Kulak, Amnesty International Australia campaigner, said:

“By giving endorsement, Australia can now step up and be a global leader in creating support for the upcoming vote in the UN General Assembly. A majority vote is needed at the UN before the ICJ can provide its advisory opinion on the human rights impact of climate change. We need Australia to champion this on the world stage.

“Climate change is a human rights crisis of unprecedented proportions, affecting health, food, water, housing, livelihoods and life itself. It is a threat to not only individuals but to entire cultures and peoples. This support from Pacific leaders for an ICJ advisory opinion is a crucial step in shaping climate action from a much-needed human rights perspective.”

Joseph Zane Sikulu, 350.org Pacific Managing Director, said:

“Time and again, Pacific Island leaders have shown the world what true climate leadership looks like. This endorsement of the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion is a welcome message that Pacific, New Zealand and Australian leaders want to be on the right side of history, and it must be backed up by action.

“This voyage did not start here, nor does it end with this endorsement. We carry on the legacy of climate leaders from Tuvalu, Marshall Islands and Kiribati who fought for a target of 1.5°C to stay alive, and our canoe will not rest until we secure a safe and liveable future. Now it is time for the rest of the world to follow suit.”

Ashwini Prabha, Board Chair of the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network, said:

“Supporting the ICJAO is a test for global solidarity on climate emergency in times of critical energy and geopolitical debates where many countries are expanding fossil fuels instead of phasing out, jeopardising our chances to remain below the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.

“All citizens around the world need their basic human rights protected and the ICJAO can ensure this recognition. Pacific civil society is counting on support from all regions around the globe in the months ahead culminating in a majority vote at the UN General Assembly in September in New York.”

Notes

See PIF’s official communique here.

Oxfam’s verdict on the COP26 outcome

November 15, 2021

Gabriela Bucher, Oxfam International Executive Director said:

“Clearly some world leaders think they aren’t living on the same planet as the rest of us. It seems no amount of fires, rising sea levels or droughts will bring them to their senses to stop increasing emissions at the expense of humanity.

“Punishing, extreme weather is already wrecking the lives of the most vulnerable. People are barely clinging on, having little resources to cope with the constant threat of losing all that they own. The world’s poorest have done the least to cause the climate emergency, yet are the ones left struggling to survive while also footing the bill.

“The request to strengthen 2030 reduction targets by next year is an important step. The work starts now. Big emitters, especially rich countries, must heed the call and align their targets to give us the best possible chance of keeping 1.5 degrees within reach. Despite years of talks, emissions continue to rise, and we are dangerously close to losing this race against time.

“Developing countries, representing over 6 billion people, put forward a loss and damage finance facility to build back in the aftermath of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Not only did rich countries block this, all they would agree to is limited funding for technical assistance and a ‘dialogue’. This derisory outcome is tone deaf to the suffering of millions of people both now and in the future.

“For the first time, a goal for adaptation finance was agreed. The commitment to double is below what developing countries asked for and need, but if realised it will increase support to developing countries by billions.

“It’s painful that diplomatic efforts have once more failed to meet the scale of this crisis. But we should draw strength from the growing movement of people around the world challenging and holding our governments to account for everything we hold dear. A better world is possible. With creativity, with bravery, we can and must hold onto that belief.”

Oxfam Aotearoa: Fossil of the Day award “embarrassing”

November 12, 2021

Oxfam Aotearoa has criticised the New Zealand government for winning the runner up for the “Fossil of the Day” award that Minister James Shaw received at COP26 overnight. The award, presented by the Climate Action Network (CAN), is given to the nation who has hindered COP26 negotiations the most. Oxfam Aotearoa Campaign Lead Alex Johnston said:

“It is embarrassing that our government is receiving such an ‘award’ on a global stage. This is not a good representation of Kiwis; this is not our kaupapa.”

CAN pointed out that the New Zealand government put out a revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) the night before COP, which Oxfam Aotearoa and other organisations said was inconsistent with the Paris Agreement due to its unambitious 2030 target. Oxfam previously reprimanded the updated NDC saying that it relies heavily on paying other countries to do the work for us. As CAN said in their release put out today:

“[Minister Shaw] said that just because a refreshing of the NDC has been asked of countries ‘it doesn’t mean we have to’. This comes from a country that gives off the ‘greener than thou’ vibe at the drop of a hobbits hat. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised when it was brought to our attention that he’s also the guy who put out a revised NDC the night before COP. That one wasn’t worth the wait, unfortunately. Civil society commentators widely regarded it as a Grade A hatchet job, inconsistent with Paris temperature goals, wholly unambitious on 2030 target and relying heavily on carbon markets.”

Johnston says that the New Zealand government can’t tell other countries to close the ambition gap for 1.5 degrees if we are not willing to do that ourselves:

“The government’s delay to the Emissions Reduction Plan means we are falling further and further behind. We also can’t call for transparency when our NDC hides the fact that domestic emissions will only be cut by around 7-9% below 2005 levels by 2030 on a net-net basis.

“For Minister Shaw to undermine the encouragement to return with greater NDCs in 2022 before the final text has been agreed is extremely disappointing. It’s a reflection of the laggard pace of our domestic action. Each day we delay bolder action means more people go hungry, lose their homes and die.

“Minister Shaw needs to come back from Glasgow with the clear message: Aotearoa New Zealand must scale up our domestic response and increase ambition each year until we are doing our fair share to keep global heating to 1.5 degrees.”

Oxfam responds to the draft COP26 decision text

November 10, 2021

Responding to the draft COP26 decision text, Tracy Carty, head of Oxfam’s COP26 delegation said

“This draft COP decision text is too weak. It fails to respond to the climate emergency being faced by millions of people now, who are living with unprecedented extreme weather and being pushed further into poverty.

“It fails to include clear and unambiguous commitment to increase the ambition of 2030 emission reduction targets next year to keep 1.5 degrees alive. Emissions are rising, not falling and current commitments are way off track for keeping this goal within reach.

“There are just two days left to negotiate a better deal. One that commits to increase adaptation finance to 50 per cent by 2025, takes seriously developing country demands for finance for loss and damage, and sends the strongest possible signal emission reduction targets will increase next year in line with 1.5 degrees.”

COP26 week two: Oxfam urges governments to move faster

November 8, 2021

At the start of COP26 week two, Oxfam urges governments to move faster and decisively in the final five days, if they are to reach a deal that will keep 1.5°C within reach and increase support to vulnerable communities.

On keeping 1.5°C within reach, Tracy Carty, head of Oxfam’s COP26 delegation said:

“Last week saw a flurry of announcements, from halting deforestation to reducing methane emissions. And it is an important signal that more countries have committed to ending coal use, and some even fossil fuel financing abroad. Yet, for some of these announcements there is a glaring lack of detail on what they entail.

“They must not be a distraction from the urgent issue of countries needing to increase the ambition of their national emission reduction targets (NDCs) by 2030. Current pledges still add up to a catastrophic 2.7°C.

“This is a crisis COP. There is no time to waste and duck responsibility. Governments absolutely have to keep 1.5°C within reach. This week there has to be a deal that compels all countries to increase the ambition of their NDCs in line with their fair share.”

On the issue of adaptation finance:

“Adaptation finance is a lifeline for poor communities, crucial for helping countries adapt to extreme weather events which they are least responsible for. But currently, only $20 billion of the $100 billion commitment is allocated to adaptation, less than half.

“We need agreement at this COP that there will be a significant increase in adaptation finance, in line with developing country calls for a 50/50 split between adaptation and mitigation, with a greater percentage of funds provided as grants not loans. Last week an increasing number of countries, including Germany, said this call for 50 per cent needed to be taken seriously.

On Loss and damage finance:

“Even at today’s 1.1°C of warming, we are all witnessing more frequent and devastating climate impacts around the world. And the world’s poorest countries are footing the bill for a climate crisis they did little to cause.

“We saw a glimmer of hope start of week one when Scotland stepped forward and became the first rich nation to explicitly commit to finance for loss and damage. We need other rich nations to now do the same.

“We have seen long-standing resistance from developed countries on the question of how to increase resources to help developing countries facing the worst impacts of climate change. Governments have five days to show communities on the frontlines of climate change that they’re not alone.”

Oxfam is also calling for world leaders to listen to the voices of people from developing countries and act on their concerns. Margaret Masudio, a smallholder from Uganda who travelled to the COP with Oxfam to participate said:

“We are very worried, particularly for our children. How do we survive? If right now, the hardship we are facing is at this level, how about the future? Farmers are paying the price for climate change, without knowing why they are paying the price.

“At past COPs, we feel their impact very little – most of the things remained on paper. We hear policies but implementation is not done, because finance is not adequate.”

“In Uganda they have being giving support to communities that have been affected, but it is insufficient. So, at this COP my hope is that all the nations that are here are going to join hands to ensure that loss and damages are financed.”

Carbon emissions of richest 1% set to be 30 times the 1.5°C limit in 2030

November 5, 2021

The carbon footprints of the richest 1 per cent of people on Earth are set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement in 2030, according to new research out today. It comes as delegates grapple with how to keep this goal alive at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

In 2015, governments agreed to the goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current pledges to reduce emissions fall far short of what is needed. To stay within this guardrail, every person on Earth would need to emit an average of just 2.3 tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030 – this is roughly half the average footprint of every person on Earth today.

Today’s study, commissioned by Oxfam based on research carried out by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), estimates how governments’ pledges will affect the carbon footprints of richer and poorer people around the world. It treats the global population and income groups as if they were a single country. It finds that by 2030:

The poorest half of the global population will still emit far below the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030.
The richest 1 per cent and 10 per cent of people are set to exceed this level by 30 times and 9 times respectively.
Someone in the richest 1 per cent would need to reduce their emissions by around 97 per cent compared with today to reach this level.

But in a sign that the 2015 Paris Agreement is having some impact, the middle 40 per cent are on course for per capita emissions cuts of 9 per cent from 2015 to 2030. This is a turnaround for a group, which is mostly made up of citizens in middle-income countries like China and South Africa that saw the fastest per capita emissions growth rates from 1990 to 2015.

Looking at total global emissions, instead of per capita emissions, the richest 1 per cent – fewer people than the population of Germany – are expected to account for 16 per cent of total global emissions by 2030, up from 13 per cent in 1990 and 15 per cent in 2015. The total emissions of the richest 10 per cent alone are set to exceed the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030, regardless of what the other 90 per cent do.

Nafkote Dabi, Climate Policy Lead at Oxfam, said: “The emissions from a single billionaire space flight would exceed the lifetime emissions of someone in the poorest billion people on Earth. A tiny elite appear to have a free pass to pollute. Their over-sized emissions are fuelling extreme weather around the world and jeopardising the international goal of limiting global heating. The emissions of the wealthiest 10 per cent alone could send us beyond the agreed limit in the next nine years. This would have catastrophic results for some of the most vulnerable people on Earth who are already facing deadly storms, hunger and destitution.”

The geography of global carbon inequality is set to change too, with a larger share of the emissions of the world’s richest 1 per cent and 10 per cent linked to citizens in middle income countries. By 2030, Chinese citizens will be responsible for almost a quarter (23 per cent) of the emissions of the richest 1 per cent, US citizens for a fifth (19 per cent) and Indian citizens for a tenth (11 per cent).

Tim Gore, author of this briefing and Head of the Low Carbon and Circular Economy programme at IEEP, said: “The global emissions gap to keep the 1.5°C Paris goal alive is not the result of the consumption of most of the world’s people: it reflects instead the excessive emissions of just the richest citizens on the planet. To close the emissions gap by 2030, it is necessary for governments to target measures at their richest, highest emitters – the climate and inequality crises should be tackled together. That includes both measures to constrain luxury carbon consumption like mega yachts, private jets and space travel, and to curb climate-intensive investments like stock-holdings in fossil fuel industries.”

Emily Ghosh, Scientist at Stockholm Environment Institute says: “Our research highlights the challenge of ensuring a more equitable distribution of the remaining and rapidly diminishing global carbon budget. If we continue on the same trajectory as today the stark inequalities in income and emissions across the global population will remain, challenging the equity principle at the very heart of the Paris Agreement. Analysis of carbon inequality must urgently be put at the centre of governments efforts to reduce emissions.”

Oxfam said world leaders should focus on targeting deeper emissions cuts by 2030, in line with their fair share, and ensure that the richest people worldwide and within countries make the most radical cuts. The richest citizens have the potential to speed up this process dramatically, both by leading greener lifestyles but also by directing their political influence and investments towards a low-carbon economy.

Notes to editors:

For a copy of the briefing see: Carbon Inequality in 2030: Per capita consumption emissions and the 1.5C goal

The report was commissioned by Oxfam and authored by Tim Gore, IEEP, based on research carried out by IEEP and SEI.

Today’s briefing is based on an analysis of the impact of unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted up to September 2021 under the Paris Agreement on the per capita consumption emissions of different global income groups.

Global income groups	Estimated consumption emissions per person in 2030 (tonnes CO2 per year)	Number of times over the level of per capita emissions consistent with 1.5°C (2.3 tonnes)
Richest 1%	70	x30
Richest 10%	21	x9
Middle 40%	5	x2
Poorest 50%	1	x0.43 (less than half)

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021 estimates that total global emissions will need to fall to approximately 18 Gt CO2 (25 Gt CO2e) per year by 2030, on a pathway to net zero emissions by mid-century, in order to have a reasonable chance of limiting global heating to 1.5°C. This works out to approximately 2.3 tonnes CO2 per person per year (per capita emissions) in 2030.

By 2030, the global population is projected to be approximately 7.9 billion people. This will comprise approximately 80 million people in the top 1 per cent, 800 million in the top 10 per cent, 3.4 billion in the ‘middle 40 per cent’ and 4 billion in the poorest 50 per cent.

By 2030, you would need an annual income of more than NZD 255,000 to be in the richest 1 per cent; more than NZD 82,000 to be in the richest 10 per cent; more than NZD 14,500 to be in the middle 40 per cent; or less than NZD 14,500 to be in the poorest half of the global population.

This briefing builds on last year’s report from Oxfam and SEI which estimated that the richest 1 per cent of people on Earth is responsible for twice the carbon emissions of the poorest 50 per cent from 1990 to 2015.

Carbon emissions per passenger for an 11-minute space flight are estimated to be at least 75 tonnes, according to a recent report by Lucas Chancel. People in the poorest billion emit less than one tonne of carbon per year.

The Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) is a sustainability Think Tank working with stakeholders across EU institutions, international bodies, academia, civil society and industry. Our team of economists, scientists and lawyers produce evidence-based research and policy insight (www.ieep.eu).

The Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organisation that tackles environment and development challenges.